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Predicting Voting Behavior Using Digital Trace Data
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A major concern arising from ubiquitous tracking of individuals’ online activity is that algorithms may be trained to predict personal sensitive information, even for users who do not wish to reveal such information. Although previous research has shown that digital trace data can accurately predict sociodemographic characteristics, little is known about the potentials of such data to predict sensitive outcomes. Against this background, we investigate in this article whether we can accurately predict voting behavior, which is considered personal sensitive information in Germany and subject to strict privacy regulations. Using records of web browsing and mobile device usage of about 2,000 online users eligible to vote in the 2017 German federal election combined with survey data from the same individuals, we find that online activities do not predict (self-reported) voting well in this population. These findings add to the debate about users’ limited control over (inaccurate) personal information flows.
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MPRC People
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Frauke Kreuter, Ph.D.
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Frauke Kreuter Publications
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Primer on Costs of Action/ Inaction and Communication to Policymakers
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To support the African ChemObs project (the Integrated Health and Environment Observatories and Legal and Institutional Strengthening for the Sound Management of Chemicals in Africa), we provide a critical review of methodologies for valuing the health damages from policy inaction associated with chemical exposures. In particular, we discuss how disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and IQ loss should be valued. We conclude by providing advice on communicating the costs of inaction and the benefits and costs of action to policymakers. By the social costs of inaction, we mean the private or market costs, as well as the external costs, from pollution exposures compared with no exposure. Knowledge of these damages can then lead to policies designed to force investment and operating decisions in the market to account for (internalize) such costs/damages. The costs of inaction can be distinguished from the benefits and costs of action. The benefits of action are the value of, for example, the health improvements from regulations or other forms of action. These actions usually come with a cost of resources to bring about such actions. The net benefits to society of an action are the benefits minus the costs of action. In general, as regulations of chemicals rarely eliminate all exposures, the costs of inaction generally exceed (in absolute terms) the benefits of action.
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MPRC People
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Maureen Cropper, Ph.D.
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Maureen Cropper Publications
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Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity
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John Haltiwanger, University of Maryland, et al.; 2013-019
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Research
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Working Papers
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WP Documents
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Profiles of caregiver racial-ethnic socialization found to promote academic engagement in Black and Latinx youth
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Mia Smith-Bynum and others investigate how caregivers' responses to racial / ethnic discrimination relate to demographic characteristics and youth academic engagement
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Research
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Selected Research
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Promoting Economic Recovery After COVID-19
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Melissa Kearney and colleagues offer bi-partisan plan for economic recovery
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Research
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Selected Research
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Punishment and Inequality at an Early Age: Exclusionary Discipline in Elementary School
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We advance current knowledge of school punishment by examining (1) the prevalence of exclusionary discipline in elementary school, (2) racial disparities in exclusionary discipline in elementary school, and (3) the association between exclusionary discipline and aggressive behavior in elementary school. Using child and parent reports from the Fragile Families Study, we estimate that more than one in ten children born between 1998 and 2000 in large US cities were suspended or expelled by age nine, when most were in third grade. We also find extreme racial disparity; about 40 percent of non-Hispanic black boys were suspended or expelled, compared to 8 percent of non-Hispanic white or other-race boys. Disparities are largely due to differences in children’s school and home environments rather than to behavior problems. Next, consistent with social stress and strain theories, we find suspension or expulsion associated with increased aggressive behavior in elementary school. This association does not vary by race but is robust to a rich set of covariates, within-individual fixed effects, and matching methods. In conjunction with what we find for racial disparities, our results imply that school discipline policies relying heavily on exclusionary punishment may be fostering childhood inequality.
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MPRC People
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Wade C Jacobsen, Ph.D.
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Wade Jacobsen Publications
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Race / Ethnic Differentials in the Health Implications of Grandparents Caring for Grandchildren,
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Faculty Associate Feinian Chen studies health implications for grandparents caring for grandchildren
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Research
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Selected Research
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Race and income moderate the association between depressive symptoms and obesity
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Complex interrelationships between race, sex, obesity and depression have been well-documented. Because of differences in associations between socioeconomic status (SES) and health by race, determining the role of SES may help to further explicate these relationships. The aim of this study was to determine how race and income interact with obesity on depression. Combining data from the 2007-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, depressive symptoms was measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and obesity was assessed as body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 . Three-way interactions between race, income and obesity on depressive symptoms were determined using ordered regression models. Significant interactions between race, middle income and obesity (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.22-1.96) suggested that, among white women, obesity is positively associated with depressive symptoms across income levels, while obesity was not associated with depression for African American women at any income level. Obesity was only associated with depressive symptoms among middle-income white men (OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.02-2.03) and among high-income African American men (OR = 4.65, 95% CI = 1.48-14.59). The associations between obesity and depressive symptoms vary greatly by race and income. Findings from this study underscore the importance of addressing obesity and depression among higher income African American men.
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Retired Persons
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Caryn Bell, Ph.D.
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Caryn Bell Publications
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Race, Family Status and Young Women’s Residential and Financial Dependency: 1970-2010
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Joan Kahn and Frances Goldscheider, University of Maryland; Javier Garcia-Manglano, Oxford University // Keywords : Living arrangements, financial dependency, race, marriage, unmarried parenthood, young adulthood; 2015-005
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Research
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Working Papers
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WP Documents
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Race, Gender, and Educational Achievement
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Odis Johnson investigates how social issues affect education
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Research
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Selected Research