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File Troff document (with manpage macros)Recession and Divorce in the United States: Economic Conditions and the Odds of Divorce, 2008-2010
Philip N. Cohen, University of Maryland; 2012-008
Located in Research / Working Papers / WP Documents
Article Reference Troff document (with manpage macros)The Coming Divorce Decline
This article analyzes U.S. divorce trends over the past decade and considers their implications for future divorce rates. Modeling women’s odds of divorce from 2008 to 2017 using marital events data from the American Community Survey, I find falling divorce rates with or without adjustment for demographic covariates. Age-specific divorce rates show that the trend is driven by younger women, which is consistent with longer term trends showing uniquely high divorce rates among people born in the Baby Boom period. Finally, I analyze the characteristics of newly married women and estimate the trend in their likelihood of divorcing based on the divorce models. The results show falling divorce risks for more recent marriages. The accumulated evidence thus points toward continued decline in divorce rates. The United States is progressing toward a system in which marriage is rarer and more stable than it was in the past.
Located in MPRC People / Philip Cohen, Ph.D. / Philip Cohen Publications
Article ReferenceImplications of Unstable Trends in Marriage, Birth, and Divorce
Using birth, marriage, and divorce data from the U.S. Census, this study examines the stability in trends between 1920 and 2008. Our investigation substantiates the reactive nature of family trends to any intervention or change in its environment. We find that changes in family trends, which might have been initiated by changes in policies or other interventions, are permanent and do not fade away by reversing policies or interventions. Hence, family and consumer scientists, policymakers, and practitioners must explicitly allow for unstable trends when researching or targeting the dynamics of birth, marriage, and divorce, and prescribing interventions that they view as stabilizers of family dynamics.
Located in MPRC People / Manouchehr (Mitch) Mokhtari, Ph.D. / Mitch Mokhtari Publications
Philip Cohen featured in USA Today on U.S. Divorce Rate
Millennials are contributing to the declining divorce rate in U.S.
Located in News