Skip to content. | Skip to navigation

Personal tools


You are here: Home / Coming Up / Sara Curran, University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography & Ecology

Sara Curran, University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography & Ecology

Estimating Short- and Long-Term Effects on Population Change Resulting From Hurricane Exposure in U.S. Counties, 1970-2017
When Feb 24, 2020
from 12:00 PM to 01:00 PM
Where 1101 Morrill Hall
Contact Name
Contact Phone 301-405-6403
Add event to calendar vCal

About the Presentation

Recent social science advances in understanding the consequences of climate change on human populations, increasingly points to significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity in exposure to climate-related events and variable economic, social, and demographic responses. This variability presents challenges for assessing and anticipating climate-related population impacts. In an effort to overcome these challenges, we generate panel data for U.S. counties for every year between 1970-2017, including annual measures of population size, population change, population density, county and state identifiers, economic productivity, and exposure to hurricanes and tropical storms (including measures of economic loss). These data are part of a larger study that includes numerous measures of climate-related weather disasters and their impact on all U.S. counties. We develop a dynamic model of the relationship between hurricane and tropical storm exposure and population change, accounting for economic conditions and population size and density for those counties that ever experienced a hurricane or tropical storm. We do this with through estimating a difference-in-difference regression model. Our initial results indicate that any hurricane exposure significantly slows population growth in the first year following a hurricane. Furthermore, lagged effects of any hurricane continue to dampen population growth. When we specify a model that evaluates hurricane exposure with a measure of economic losses due to severe storms, we find larger short- and long-term effects on population growth. These results hold when we control for economic conditions and population size and density. 

About the Speaker

Sara Curran

Sara Curran is Professor of International Studies, Sociology, and Public Policy & Governance at the University of Washington. She researches migration, gender, globalization, and environment & population dynamics in both international and U.S. contexts.

« April 2024 »