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Effects of Mortality Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa on Fertility and Infant and Child Survival

Laurie DeRose, Sociology

Understanding the impact of a stalled or reversed mortality transition on fertility has practical significance in sub-Saharan Africa where mortality declines initiated in the post-war era have not continued in the past two decades (Hill et al. 2003). Furthermore, the impact of mortality reversals associated with the AIDS epidemic may have distinct effects on fertility from increased mortality from other sources (e.g., introduction of user fees in the public health care sector, deterioration of transportation infrastructure).
The seed grant provides support for empirical analysis of the effect of HIV prevalence and mortality trends on 1) infant and child mortality rates and 2) the progress of fertility transition. This is a collaborative effort with Kenneth Hill and Megan Klein. We will first complete analysis for Mali and Zambia, countries where HIV prevalence data are available for nationally representative samples (from the DHS).

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