Was China’s fertility decline really policy induced?

China’s recent replacement of the one-child policy with the two-child policy, has been lauded for giving citizens more freedom in making fertility decisions. However, research shows that declines in fertility may have been supported by individual reason to begin with. China’s dramatic fertility decline began nearly a decade prior to the institution of the one-child policy in 1978, and fertility has declined gradually to current levels ever since. Recent decades have witnessed the rise of education and employment for Chinese girls and women, and research has found that the empowerment of women alone can explain a substantial portion of the decline in fertility, despite the enforcement of the one-child policy.

What remains, and has been exacerbated by this policy, is the issue of sex selection at birth. The abortion of female fetuses remains common practice even with a rise in female education and employment, and while the two-child policy may reduce this practice, a public conversation on gender equity is essential to grappling with prevalent son preference and female feticide.

See complete story in The New York Times