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Seminar Series: Michel Guillot, Sociology, University of Pennsylvania

Mortality Rates, Mortality Conditions, and the Tracking of Progress in Life Expectancy
When Feb 22, 2016
from 12:00 PM to 01:00 PM
Where 1101 Morrill Hall
Contact Name
Contact Phone 301-405-6403
Attendees Feinian Chen
Ricardo Espinoza
Wilbur Hadden
Yuko Hara
Xiaohong Ma
Marian MacDorman
Sangetha Madhavan
Ui Jeong Moon
Joanna Pepin
Michael Rendall
Nicole Riley
Liana Sayer
Elizabeth Seaman
Sarah Tom
Reeve Vanneman
Yeats Ye
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About the Talk

A population's level of period life expectancy is a biased indicator of period mortality conditions, due to the existence of cohort effects and mortality selection. It is also an indicator that has little relevance for the experience of actual individuals. In this paper, we discuss Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy (LCLE), or the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy. We argue that LCLE is a useful mortality measure that provides information about levels of longevity currently being reached by actual cohorts of individuals. LCLE also makes a useful distinction in a population between individuals who have not yet reached the life expectancy for their own cohort, and those who have already surpassed it. However, LCLE cannot be observed for the current year, because the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy is not yet extinct. Therefore the estimation of current LCLE must rely on assumptions about future mortality. We show that estimates of current LCLE are robust to various projection scenarios, including one that assumes no future mortality change. We then estimate LCLE trajectories for four countries (France, Japan, Sweden, and the US). We find that rankings of countries differ in terms of LCLE vs. period life expectancy (e0P), illustrating the extent to which superior levels of period mortality have lasted long enough to already translate into superior levels of cohort life expectancy. Given the importance of cohort life expectancy as an unbiased measure of mortality conditions that reflects the actual life course of individuals, we propose that LCLE provides an important complement to e0P for understanding mortality levels and trends.

About the Speaker

Michel Guillot is Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of Pennsylvania. His research is organized primarily around two main areas: (1) formal demography; and (2) understanding health disparities across and within populations. In the area of formal demography, Professor Guillot has designed new methodologies for better understanding mortality levels and trends, and for studying their impact on population growth and aging. He has also made contributions in the area of model age patterns of mortality and indirect estimation methods. In the area of health disparities, he has examined the burden of disease among the global poor. He has also studied the health of vulnerable ethnic, religious, and migrant groups in a range of populations, including India. A related interest has been the analysis of the health crisis in the former Soviet Union, with a special focus on the Central Asia region.

Visit Professor Guillot's webpage

Please note that, at the present time, Morrill Hall is not accessible for handicapped individuals.

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