The Effects of School Quality on Fertility in a Transition Economy

This paper investigates the effects of school quality on fertility in a transition country. It aims to explain the slowing fertility and shrinking rural sector of a post Soviet country, Ukraine, through the decline in the quality of public services, in particular, school quality. It builds on earlier work of Rosenzweig (1982), which tests for the effects of a change in the price of child quality, measured here by school quality. Estimates from a generalized Poisson model of fertility show that school quality has a positive and significant effect on household fertility. Specifically, a 1% rise in teacher quality is associated with a 0.3-0.4 rise in the expected number of births to a Ukrainian woman in the late 1990’s, early 2000’s. This positive relationship between children’s school quality limits the importance that we can place on income alone in driving fertility. It also suggests that Ukraine should consider long term investments into the quality and equality of their education system as a means to encouraging a rise in fertility and future human capital. Key words: quantity-quality, fertility, transition JEL classification:

APPROVED by MPRC Executive Committee, November 2010