Cohen ACS research projects 52.7 divorce rate
Persistent divorces by baby boomers appear to drive a divorce rate close to 50 percent, according to Ben Steverman in Bloomberg News. "So if modern brides and grooms are pickier, and thus getting married later in life, and if overall divorce rates are down, why do Cohen and other sociologists conclude that half of all marriages end in divorce? Blame the baby boomers. They started divorcing at record rates in the 1970s and never stopped," he writes.
He cites Faculty Associate Philip Cohen's findings that - presuming current levels of marriage, divorce, and widowhood - the chances of this year's weddings ending in divorce is over 52 percent. He cautions, however, "So, if you write a headline that says, 'your chance of divorce if you marry today is 52.7%,' that would be too strong, because it doesn’t take into account that the world might change. Also, people are different."
In other research using the ACS, reported in Time, Cohen found that marriages undertaken when a woman is quite young - between 15 and 20 - or when a woman is over 45 have a greater chance of ending in divorce.