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Article Reference Troff document (with manpage macros)Race-Ethnicity, Class, and Unemployment Dynamics: Do Macroeconomic Shifts Alter Existing Disadvantages?
Research indicates that individuals of different races, ethnic backgrounds, and class origins differ in their unemployment rates. We know less, however, about whether these differences result from the differing groups’ unequal hazards of entering or exiting unemployment and even less about how economic fluctuations moderate the ethnoracial and class-origin gaps in the long-term risks of transitioning into and out of unemployment. Using Rounds 1–17 of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 and event history models, we show that non-Hispanic blacks become more similar to non-Hispanic whites in their paces of entering unemployment as their local unemployment rate rises, perhaps because jobs largely closed to the former are eliminated in a greater proportion during recessions. Nonetheless, blacks’ relatively slow pace of transitioning from unemployment to having a job decelerates further with economic downturns. By contrast, Hispanics’ paces of entering and exiting unemployment relative to non-Hispanic whites hardly change with local unemployment rates, despite unemployed Hispanics’ slower rate of transitioning to having a job. With respect to class origin, we find that the advantages in both unemployment entry and recovery of young men with relatively educated parents diminish with economic deterioration. Based on these results, we suggest that facing economic pressure, employers’ preference for workers of a higher class origin is more malleable than their preference for whites over blacks, making unemployed blacks especially disadvantaged in uncertain economic times. DOI :  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2019.100422
Located in Retired Persons / Wei-hsin Yu, Ph.D. / Wei-hsin Yu Publications
Economics Seminar : Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
Why Working From Home Will Stick
Located in Coming Up
Nathaniel Hilger, Brown University
Labor / Public Finance / Development Economics seminar
Located in Coming Up
Damon Jones, University of Chicago
Estimating Extensive Margin Responses using Kinked Budget Sets: Evidence from the Earnings Test
Located in Coming Up
Katharine Abraham comments on Misleading Economic Data during COVID-19 on The New York Times
The tools we have to understand what is happening to the economy are becoming distorted or harder to interpret.
Located in News
Promoting Economic Recovery After COVID-19
Melissa Kearney and colleagues offer bi-partisan plan for economic recovery
Located in Research / Selected Research
Kearney edits Future of Children volume
How Cultural Factors Shape Economic Outcomes
Located in News
How Ending a Conditional Cash Transfer Program Impacts Children’s School Enrollment: Evidence from Mexico
Susan W. Parker, Public Policy
Located in Resources / / Seed Grant Program / Seed Grants Awarded
Article Reference Troff document (with manpage macros)Factor Models and Time-Varying Parameter Framework for Forecasting Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Survey
A survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factor‐based and time‐varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models. This survey also finds that models based on Taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates. The evidence on the use of Bayesian Model Averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power, but strong support for forecasting inflation. Overall, the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts, relevance of the historical data, data transformation, choice of the benchmark, selected time horizons, sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation.
Located in MPRC People / Manouchehr (Mitch) Mokhtari, Ph.D. / Mitch Mokhtari Publications
File Troff document (with manpage macros)Microcredit and Willingness to Pay for Environmental Quality: Evidence from a Randomized-Controlled Trial of Finance for Sanitation in Rural Cambodia
Raymond Guiteras, University of Maryland, et al. // Keywords: Willingness to pay, sanitation, microcredit, Becker-DeGroot-Marschak, randomization inference; 2016-003
Located in Research / Working Papers / WP Documents