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Damon Jones, University of Chicago
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Estimating Extensive Margin Responses using Kinked Budget Sets: Evidence from the Earnings Test
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Coming Up
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Katharine Abraham comments on Misleading Economic Data during COVID-19 on The New York Times
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The tools we have to understand what is happening to the economy are becoming distorted or harder to interpret.
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News
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Promoting Economic Recovery After COVID-19
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Melissa Kearney and colleagues offer bi-partisan plan for economic recovery
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Research
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Selected Research
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Kearney edits Future of Children volume
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How Cultural Factors Shape Economic Outcomes
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News
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How Ending a Conditional Cash Transfer Program Impacts Children’s School Enrollment: Evidence from Mexico
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Susan W. Parker, Public Policy
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Seed Grant Program
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Seed Grants Awarded
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Factor Models and Time-Varying Parameter Framework for Forecasting Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Survey
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A survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factor‐based and time‐varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models. This survey also finds that models based on Taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates. The evidence on the use of Bayesian Model Averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power, but strong support for forecasting inflation. Overall, the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts, relevance of the historical data, data transformation, choice of the benchmark, selected time horizons, sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation.
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MPRC People
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Manouchehr (Mitch) Mokhtari, Ph.D.
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Mitch Mokhtari Publications
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Microcredit and Willingness to Pay for Environmental Quality: Evidence from a Randomized-Controlled Trial of Finance for Sanitation in Rural Cambodia
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Raymond Guiteras, University of Maryland, et al. // Keywords: Willingness to pay, sanitation, microcredit, Becker-DeGroot-Marschak, randomization inference; 2016-003
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Working Papers
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WP Documents
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Judith Hellerstein, Economics
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Social Capital and Labor Market Networks
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Coming Up
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Do Lottery Payments Induce Savings Behavior? Evidence from the Lab
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Melissa Kearney, University of Maryland, et al. // Keywords: prize linked savings, lotteries, risk preferences, Prelec weighting; 2013-013
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Working Papers
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WP Documents
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Do Labor Market Networks Have an Important Spatial Dimension?
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Judith Hellerstein, University of Maryland; Mark J. Kutzbach, U.S. Census Bureau; David Neumark, University of California Irvine; 2013-014
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Working Papers
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WP Documents