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Reeve Vanneman, University of Maryland; 2019-009

There’s much less demand for the labor of less-educated men despite the job boon after the Great Recession

We inquire how early in childhood children most at risk for problematic patterns of internalizing and externalizing behaviors can be accurately classified. Yearly measures of anxiety/depressive symptoms and aggressive behaviors (ages 6–13;  n  = 334), respectively, are used to identify behavioral trajectories. We then assess the degree to which limited spans of yearly information allow for the correct classification into the elevated, persistent pattern of the problem behavior, identified theoretically and empirically as high-risk and most in need of intervention. The true positive rate (sensitivity) is below 70% for anxiety/depressive symptoms and aggressive behaviors using behavioral information through ages 6 and 7. Conversely, by age 9, over 90% of the high-risk individuals are correctly classified (i.e., sensitivity) for anxiety/depressive symptoms, but this threshold is not met until age 12 for aggressive behaviors. Notably, the false positive rate of classification for both high-risk problem behaviors is consistently low using each limited age span of data (< 5%). These results suggest that correct classification into highest risk groups of childhood problem behavior is limited using behavioral information observed at early ages. Prevention programming targeting those who will display persistent, elevated levels of problem behavior should be cognizant of the degree of misclassification and how this varies with the accumulation of behavioral information. Continuous assessment of problem behaviors is needed throughout childhood in order to continually identify high-risk individuals most in need of intervention as behavior patterns are sufficiently realized.

Social context partially determines the family formation response to a positive income or earnings shock

Despite the growing popularity, UBI is a flawed idea that would do little to fix problems

We evaluate two low-cost college support programs designed to target poor time management, a common challenge among many undergraduates. We experimentally evaluate the programs across three distinct colleges, randomly assigning more than 9,000 students to construct a weekly schedule in an online planning module and to receive weekly study reminders or coach consultation via text message. Despite high participation and engagement, and treated students at two sites marginally increasing study time, we estimate precise null effects on student credit accumulation, course grades, and retention at each site for the full sample and for multiple subgroups. The results and other supplemental evidence suggest that low-touch programs that offer scheduling assistance, encouragement, and reminders for studying lack the required scope to significantly affect academic outcomes.

Objective: Cardiometabolic disease is the leading cause of mortality in the United States. Cardiometabolic function during adolescence predicts future cardiometabolic disease, yet few studies have examined early determinants of cardiometabolic function. Informed by evidence of sex differences in the prevalence and severity of cardiometabolic disorders and evidence of sexual dimorphism in the stress response, we examined sex differences in the association between living in poverty and cardiometabolic function during adolescence, a precursor of later cardiometabolic disorders. Methods: We linked data from 10 415 adolescents aged 12-19 in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2012) with US Census–tract data on area-level poverty (percentage of the population living in poverty, grouped into quartiles). We parameterized cardiometabolic dysfunction by summing the z scores of 6 cardiometabolic biomarkers, grouped into quintiles. Hierarchical ordinal models estimated associations. Results: Compared with residents in low-poverty areas, residents in high-poverty areas had elevated odds of cardiometabolic dysfunction (highest quartile of poverty odds ratio [OR] = 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.50). This association was more pronounced among boys than girls (highest quartile of poverty for boys: OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.10-1.70; highest quartile of poverty for girls: OR = 1.17; 95% CI, 0.94-1.47). Conclusion: Our study supports the existence of sex-specific associations. These results highlight the potential for community-based programs, such as housing assistance, to improve population health.

The U.S. incarceration rate rose dramatically over the past 45 years, increasing the number of marriages and cohabiting unions disrupted by a jail or prison stay. But as some have pointed out, not all unions dissolve as a result of incarceration, and there seems to be racial–ethnic variation in this tendency, with Blacks displaying higher rates of dissolution than Whites and Hispanics. Yet it is unclear what explains racial–ethnic differences in union dissolution among the incarcerated. Drawing on the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), we examine why racial–ethnic differences in union dissolution exist among a sample of individuals who had a marital or a cohabiting union interrupted by an incarceration spell. In doing so, we draw on social exchange theory and structural and cultural theories to suggest that racial–ethnic disparities in union dissolution are explained by differential exposure to protective relationship characteristics. The results of Cox hazard models reveal that Blacks have significantly higher hazards of union dissolution than do Whites and Hispanics. These results also indicate that being married, having a child together, having full‐time employment, a longer union duration, and a shorter incarceration spell may protect against dissolution and that these factors account, in part, for the greater risk of dissolution among Blacks relative to Whites and Hispanics.

This paper assesses if voting for democracy affects long-term electoral participation. We study the effects of participating in Chile's 1988 plebiscite, which determined whether democracy would be reinstated after a 15-year long military dictatorship. Taking advantage of individual-level voting data for upwards of 13 million Chileans, we implement an age-based RD design comparing long run registration and turnout rates across marginally eligible and ineligible individuals. We find that Plebiscite eligibility (participation) significantly increased electoral turnout three decades later, reaching 1.8 (3.3) percentage points in the 2017 Presidential election. These effects are robust to different specifications and distinctive to the 1988 referendum. We discuss potential mechanisms concluding that the scale of initial mobilization explains the estimated effects. We find that plebiscite eligibility induced a sizable share of less educated voters to register to vote compared to eligibles in other upstream elections. Since less educated voters tended to support Chile's governing left-wing coalition, we argue that the plebiscite contributed to the emergence of one party rule the twenty years following democratization.