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Factor Models and Time-Varying Parameter Framework for Forecasting Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Survey
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A survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factor‐based and time‐varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models. This survey also finds that models based on Taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates. The evidence on the use of Bayesian Model Averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power, but strong support for forecasting inflation. Overall, the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts, relevance of the historical data, data transformation, choice of the benchmark, selected time horizons, sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation.
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MPRC People
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Manouchehr (Mitch) Mokhtari, Ph.D.
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Mitch Mokhtari Publications
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Families and Inequality
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Faculty Associate Philip Cohen brings sociology research to the public eye by tackling thorny issues about race, gender, family, and inequality in an online public forum.
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Research
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Selected Research
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Finding Work After War: The Role of Military Experience in Civilian Hiring
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Meredith Kleykamp explores job market outcomes for military veterans
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Research
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Selected Research
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Florencia Torche, Stanford University
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The COVID-19 Pandemic and Infant Health: A Population-Level Analysis
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Coming Up
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For Young Women in Sub-Saharan Africa Addressing Transactional Sex May be Key to Reducing HIV Infections
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Transactional Sex and HIV Risk: From Analysis to Action
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Research
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Selected Research
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Gatekeeping in telephone surveys of female migrants in India
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The rise of telephone surveys has increased "gatekeeping" of women
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Research
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Selected Research
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Gender inequalities and household fuel choice in India
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The use of solid cooking fuels—wood, straw, crop residue, and cow-dung cakes—is associated with higher levels of environmental pollution and health burden. However, even in an era when incomes have grown and poverty has declined, the proportion of Indian households using clean cooking fuels such as kerosene or Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) has increased only slightly. Even among the wealthiest quintile, only about 40 percent of the households rely solely on clean fuel. Since the chores of cooking and collection of fuel remain primarily the domain of women, we argue that intra-household gender inequalities play an important role in shaping the household decision to invest in clean fuel. Analyses using data from the India Human Development Survey (IHDS), a panel survey of over 41,000 households conducted in two waves in 2004-05 and 2011–12, respectively, show that women's access to salaried work and control over household expenditure decisions is associated with the use of clean fuel.
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MPRC People
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Sonalde Desai, Ph.D.
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Sonalde Desai Publications
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Gender, Transport, and Employment in Mumbai
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Maureen Cropper and colleagues examine mobility patterns and a gender gap
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Research
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Selected Research
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Ginger Jin named ADVANCE Professor
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2021-2023
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News
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Gneisha Dinwiddie Investigates Links Between Race, Lifelong Stress, and Cardiovascular Disease
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Ongoing social and economic stress leads to racial and ethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease outcomes
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Research
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Selected Research
