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Article Reference Troff document (with manpage macros)Factor Models and Time-Varying Parameter Framework for Forecasting Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Survey
A survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factor‐based and time‐varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models. This survey also finds that models based on Taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates. The evidence on the use of Bayesian Model Averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power, but strong support for forecasting inflation. Overall, the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts, relevance of the historical data, data transformation, choice of the benchmark, selected time horizons, sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation.
Located in MPRC People / Manouchehr (Mitch) Mokhtari, Ph.D. / Mitch Mokhtari Publications
Article Reference Troff document (with manpage macros)Prevalence and Correlates of Alcohol Consumption During Pregnancy in Georgia: Evidence from a National Survey
Background: While alcohol consumption is pervasive in the country of Georgia, the extent of alcohol consumption among pregnant women is yet to be examined. The goal of this study is to examine prevalence and correlates of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in Georgia. Methods: Using data from the World Health Organization’s Stepwise approach to noncommunicable disease risk factor surveillance in Georgia, this study examined prevalence and sociodemographic correlates of alcohol use among pregnant women in Georgia. The study sample of reproductive age (18-45) women was drawn from the STEPS, which is a large and nationally representative survey of adults with a 95% participation rate. Frequencies, multivariate analyses and related statistics were computed to describe and study associations among the target population and the odds of alcohol consumption during pregnancy. Results: Only 66 individuals in the sample were pregnant. About 13% of pregnant women consumed alcohol in the past 30 days and nearly 70% of them engaged in binge drinking on at least one occasion. Pregnant women who were young, married, homemakers, living in two-member households and in the lowest bracket of monthly income had the highest likelihood of consuming alcohol and binge drinking. The study results were statistically significant (p< .05). Conclusions: This study reveals the magnitude of alcohol consumption and binge drinking among reproductive age women in Georgia. This study also shows prevalence and correlates of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in Georgia. The results identify characteristics of women who are most likely to use alcohol during pregnancy. Given that, alcohol use is a modifiable behavioral risk factor, the findings in this study provide the foundation for evidence-based prevention strategies that target pregnant and reproductive age women.
Located in MPRC People / Manouchehr (Mitch) Mokhtari, Ph.D. / Mitch Mokhtari Publications
Article Reference Troff document (with manpage macros)Health and Consumer Finance
Located in MPRC People / Manouchehr (Mitch) Mokhtari, Ph.D. / Mitch Mokhtari Publications
Article ReferenceImplications of Unstable Trends in Marriage, Birth, and Divorce
Using birth, marriage, and divorce data from the U.S. Census, this study examines the stability in trends between 1920 and 2008. Our investigation substantiates the reactive nature of family trends to any intervention or change in its environment. We find that changes in family trends, which might have been initiated by changes in policies or other interventions, are permanent and do not fade away by reversing policies or interventions. Hence, family and consumer scientists, policymakers, and practitioners must explicitly allow for unstable trends when researching or targeting the dynamics of birth, marriage, and divorce, and prescribing interventions that they view as stabilizers of family dynamics.
Located in MPRC People / Manouchehr (Mitch) Mokhtari, Ph.D. / Mitch Mokhtari Publications