Laura Dugan

• Building and Analyzing a Comprehensive Open Source Database on Global Terrorism Events, 1968 to 2005
  Current (2005-10-01 - 2007-03-30)
  NIJ
  Abstract

  Over the past three years we have developed a longitudinal open source Global Terrorism Data (GTD) base on terrorist events that now contains about 70,000 incidents from 1970 to 1997. Because these data include the date of incidents, they provide a quasi-experimental platform for statistically assessing changes in terrorism rates following specific counter terrorist interventions or key historical events. In this paper we demonstrate three ways in which we have exploited this feature to assess the effects of interventions and events on subsequent terrorist activities: (1) the impact of several counter terrorist policies on the frequency of aerial hijacking in the United States and elsewhere; (2) the effect of five major British counter terrorist interventions in Northern Ireland from 1969 to 1992; and (3) the impact of a 1983 attack on the Orly Airport in Paris by the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA). In each case we use Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the impact of these interventions and events on the likelihood of new terrorist attacks. Our results for the aerial hijacking analysis show that metal detectors were effective in the prevention of hijackings, but their specific effect on terrorist hijackings was not significant. Our analysis of nationalist terrorist violence in Northern Ireland shows that the five British counter terrorist interventions we examined did not significantly reduce the risk of future attacks and in some cases actually increased attack risk. And our analysis of ASALA showed that the attack on Orly was followed by a significant decline in terrorist activities. We conclude with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the GTD and the implications for further research.

• Employment, Family, and Social Consequences of Intimate Partner Violence: A Longitudinal Analysis of Impacts Over Time
  Current (2002-08-01 - 2005-01-14)
  NIJ
  Abstract

  The project will be a secondary analysis of National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data to investigate how intimate partner violence may lead the victims to reduce their exposure to subsequent violence through residential mobility, separation or divorce, or pursuit of financial autonomy. The project will examine the victimization history and subsequent changes in the lives of victims of intimate partner violence and estimate differences between outcomes for these women and outcomes for women who are victims of other types of violence, victims of property crime, and victims of neither property crime nor violence. The goals of the project are (1) to determine how acts of intimate partner violence lead to household disruption and employment consequences; (2) to investigate how these consequences can be explained by the injuries suffered by the women and their self-protective responses at the time of the incident; and (3) to estimate how the consequences of intimate partner violence affect the likelihood of subsequent acts of intimate partner violence.

• The Impact of Economic, Political and Social Variables on the Incidence of World Terrorism, 1970-1997
  Ended (2002-10-01 - 2006-04-27)
  NIJ
  

• Innovative Methods for the Collection and Analysis of Terrorism Data
  Ended (2003-02-01 - 2003-12-12)
  National Consortium on Violence Research
  

• Factors Affecting Repeated Incidents of Intimate Partner Violence by Race and Ethnicity
  Ended (2002-09-01 - 2004-02-28)
  ASA/BJS Statistical Methodological Research Program, Small Grants for Analysis of Data from BJS